Sunday, August 4, 2013

More on US debt

So again.  The us has 17 trillion dollars in debt TODAY.   Here is why its a problem.
The federal reserve has been printing some 45 billion/month to buy government bonds.    Since the Federal Reserve creates the money it uses to buy the bonds, the Federal Reserve doesn't care what the return on the investment is or if the US were ever to default on it..

So lets just say the Federal reserve is buying 100% of US debt at 2% interest(which is fine because it printed the money)

Lets say all 17 trillion dollars is at 2%.   The interest payment per year on that debt is 340 billion dollars per year.   With a total income of 2 trillion dollars, that is about 17% of revenue.   I'd even venture to say that is sustainable.   The government could operate that way, but the federal reserve MUST continue to PRINT money and STEAL from citizens storage of work(money).

Lets say hypothetically the Federal Reserve decides to stop buying government debt, on fear of inflation.   Slowly the US Government must begin refinancing it debt at market rate.   (heaven forbid)

At what rate would you lend the US Government money?.

-Its 17 trillion in debt, which is about 900% of its income
-It runs a 1 trillion dollar deficit every year, 50% of its income.
-it has unfunded liabilities of another 100 trillion or so.

Personally, I would want about 100% return on my investment to loan the Government money for a year.   There is no price at which I would lend them money for more than a year.

Lets just say the free market decides to buy government debt at a modest 10% interest rate.   10% per year of 17 trillion is 1.7 trillion dollars.   The Government revenue is 2.1 trillion dollars.   So after interest payments, the government has 400 billion dollars to spend.   Just the military budget is 600 billion.

Do you see the problem?

I would place bets that the Federal Reserve will NEVER stop printing money until hyperinflation sets in and this whole thing explodes.  I would also argue that is their intent.  They are doing it on purpose.

Protect ALL the assets you can from the federal reserves printing press!

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